Forex Forecast November 9–13, 2026: Dollar, Euro, Pound and Yen in Focus

SkyPress Forex Markets | Weekly Currency Forecast

The latest policy decisions also reveal an increasingly complicated global monetary environment. The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%, while the Bank of England has raised its Bank Rate to 4.00%. Australia has increased its cash rate to 4.85%, and the Bank of Japan has maintained its policy rate at 1.25%.

These differences in monetary policy, together with elevated global energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, could create opportunities and risks across the major currency pairs.

For the coming week, the central question is whether incoming economic figures will reinforce expectations of higher interest rates or encourage investors to reconsider the current monetary policy outlook.

Key Takeaways: Forex Markets This Week

1. US Dollar Outlook: Inflation Becomes the Main Market Test

The US dollar enters the week with monetary policy and inflation expectations at the centre of investor attention.

The Federal Reserve’s current federal funds target range stands at 3.75%–4.00%. Meanwhile, the latest available September 2026 personal consumption expenditures inflation figure showed annual inflation at 3.6%, according to Federal Reserve economic data.

Elevated inflation remains an important consideration for policymakers, particularly as higher energy costs continue to affect the global economic environment.

The most important US economic release will be October’s Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, November 10.

Current calendar estimates indicate that headline CPI increased by 0.6% month-on-month in the previous reading, with the October forecast at 0.3%. Core CPI previously increased by 0.3%, while the forecast for October stands at 0.2%.

If inflation comes in above expectations, investors could increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive monetary policy. Higher US bond yields could subsequently support the dollar against several major currencies.

Conversely, softer inflation figures could encourage investors to reconsider the outlook for future interest rates, potentially creating selling pressure on the dollar.

SkyPress Dollar Forecast

The dollar outlook is cautiously constructive ahead of the inflation report, although a sustained move in either direction will depend on the actual data and the market’s reaction.

Investors should also monitor US initial jobless claims on Thursday and October producer inflation figures on Friday.

2. EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Faces Growth and Inflation Questions

The euro enters the new week facing a delicate balance between European inflation pressures and uncertainty surrounding the region’s economic performance.

The European Central Bank maintained its three key interest rates at its October 29 policy meeting. The deposit facility rate had previously been increased to 2.50% in September.

However, inflation developments remain complicated. Eurozone inflation increased to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, while energy inflation accelerated to 18.9% from 14.3%.

Core inflation, excluding energy, increased to 2.3%, while services inflation reached 3.2%.

These figures indicate that European policymakers are still dealing with inflationary pressures, particularly those associated with energy costs.

The ECB has maintained a data-dependent approach, meaning that future interest-rate decisions will depend on inflation developments, economic activity and the persistence of underlying price pressures.

What to Watch This Week

Germany’s final October inflation figures are scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, while the eurozone’s second estimate of third-quarter GDP and employment figures will arrive on Friday, November 13.

Stronger economic growth could help improve confidence in the euro, particularly if inflation remains sufficiently elevated to discourage expectations of monetary easing.

However, disappointing growth figures could limit the currency’s ability to benefit from inflation-related interest-rate expectations.

SkyPress EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD has a cautiously neutral outlook heading into the week, with the direction likely to depend heavily on US inflation and European growth data.

A weaker-than-expected US inflation report could provide the euro with an opportunity to strengthen. Conversely, stronger US inflation combined with disappointing eurozone growth could increase selling pressure on the pair.

3. GBP/USD Forecast: Sterling Receives Support From Higher UK Interest Rates

The British pound enters the week following an important monetary policy decision from the Bank of England.

On November 5, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. One member supported a larger increase to 4.25%.

The decision reflects continuing concerns about inflation, particularly following the increase in global energy prices.

UK consumer inflation reached 3.5% in September. The Bank of England now expects inflation to rise towards approximately 5% by the middle of 2027 before gradually easing.

Although higher interest rates can support sterling by increasing the relative return available on UK-denominated assets, the broader economic implications are more complicated.

Higher borrowing costs can restrict household spending, business investment and economic growth. This creates a challenge for policymakers attempting to control inflation without placing excessive pressure on economic activity.

Thursday’s UK GDP Figures Could Influence Sterling

The preliminary UK third-quarter GDP report, scheduled for Thursday, November 12, will be particularly important.

Investors will assess whether the British economy maintained sufficient momentum during the July–September period to support the Bank of England’s relatively restrictive policy position.

Stronger-than-expected GDP growth could reinforce sterling’s appeal, particularly if inflation pressures remain elevated.

However, weak economic growth could raise concerns about the sustainability of higher interest rates and limit further gains in the pound.

SkyPress GBP/USD Forecast

The outlook for GBP/USD is cautiously bullish from a monetary policy perspective, but economic growth remains a potential obstacle.

The Bank of England’s rate increase provides an important source of support for sterling. Nevertheless, US inflation figures could still dominate the pair’s direction during the week.

4. USD/JPY Forecast: Yen Remains Sensitive to Interest-Rate Differences

The Japanese yen continues to face a difficult monetary policy environment as the Bank of Japan gradually adjusts its approach to interest rates.

The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term policy rate at 1.25% following its October 30 meeting. The decision was reached through an 8–1 vote, with one policymaker supporting an increase to 1.50%.

Japan’s core inflation excluding fresh food stood at 2.1% in September, slightly above the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

Although inflation has remained relatively persistent, the Bank of Japan must also consider domestic demand, household spending and the wider economic recovery when determining the appropriate pace of monetary tightening.

The interest-rate difference between Japan and the United States remains a significant influence on USD/JPY.

With the Federal Reserve’s target range at 3.75%–4.00% and Japan’s policy rate at 1.25%, US interest rates remain substantially higher.

This difference can encourage investors to favour dollar-denominated assets, although actual currency movements also depend on bond yields, investor positioning and expectations for future policy decisions.

Potential Intervention Risks

The yen’s weakness remains an important issue for Japanese authorities. A rapid depreciation could increase the cost of imported energy and other commodities, potentially adding to domestic inflation.

Consequently, traders will continue monitoring official comments and any indications that Japanese authorities are concerned about excessive exchange-rate movements.

The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from its October meeting is scheduled for November 9, providing additional insight into policymakers’ views on future interest-rate adjustments.

SkyPress USD/JPY Forecast

USD/JPY has a cautiously bullish outlook while the interest-rate differential continues to favour the dollar.

However, the pair remains vulnerable to a stronger yen if Japanese policymakers signal faster monetary tightening or authorities express concern about excessive currency weakness.

Any significant decline in US inflation could also reduce support for the dollar and create additional pressure on the pair.

5. AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Interest Rates and Chinese Data in Focus

The Australian dollar enters the week with an important domestic monetary policy development providing support.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% on November 3, taking borrowing costs to their highest level in approximately 18 years.

The decision followed persistent inflation pressures, elevated energy prices and concerns that domestic demand could continue contributing to price increases.

However, the 6–3 voting split revealed differences among policymakers about the appropriate direction of monetary policy.

The RBA’s latest assessment also indicates that financial conditions remain restrictive. Market pricing before the latest decision had suggested an 85% probability of another November rate increase.

Australia’s monetary policy outlook is therefore an important consideration for investors assessing the relative attractiveness of the Australian dollar.

China’s Economic Performance Matters

China remains one of Australia’s most important trading partners, making Chinese economic performance a significant influence on the Australian dollar.

Chinese CPI and producer price figures are scheduled for Monday, November 9, followed by trade balance figures on Tuesday.

China’s October CPI forecast stands at 0.8% year-on-year, compared with the previous reading of 0.9%.

Stronger Chinese economic activity could support demand for Australian exports, particularly commodities. This could provide an additional source of support for AUD/USD.

On the other hand, disappointing Chinese figures could weaken expectations for regional demand and put pressure on the Australian currency.

SkyPress AUD/USD Forecast

The outlook for AUD/USD is cautiously bullish because of Australia’s relatively high interest rates and the potential support from commodity demand.

Nevertheless, the pair faces competing influences from US inflation, Chinese economic performance and global risk sentiment.

6. USD/CAD Forecast: Oil Prices and Inflation Remain Important

The Canadian dollar enters the week with energy prices and the outlook for North American monetary policy remaining central to its performance.

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28. The Bank also indicated that further increases could become necessary if inflationary pressures remain persistent.

Canadian economic growth has shown resilience. GDP expanded by 3.3% in the second quarter, while recent indicators suggested growth of approximately 2% in the third quarter.

However, the unemployment rate has remained around 6.5%, highlighting continuing weaknesses in parts of the labour market.

Inflation is another concern. Canadian CPI inflation has been around 3% since April and is expected to rise towards approximately 3.5% by the end of 2026, according to the Bank of Canada’s October outlook.

Oil Prices Could Influence the Canadian Dollar

Canada is a major energy producer, and changes in crude oil prices can influence the country’s export revenues and broader economic expectations.

Persistently elevated oil prices could support the Canadian dollar by improving the outlook for energy exports.

However, the relationship is not automatic. Higher oil prices can also increase inflation, transportation costs and uncertainty about global economic growth.

Investors will therefore need to assess oil market developments alongside US economic figures and Canadian inflation expectations.

SkyPress USD/CAD Forecast

USD/CAD has a cautiously neutral outlook, with the direction likely to depend on the relative strength of the US and Canadian economies.

Stronger US inflation could support the US dollar, while elevated oil prices and improving Canadian economic conditions could help the Canadian currency.

A combination of softer US inflation and firm oil prices would present a more challenging environment for USD/CAD bulls.

7. USD/CHF Forecast: Swiss Franc Demand Depends on Global Risk Sentiment

The Swiss franc continues to occupy an important position among currencies considered relatively attractive during periods of financial uncertainty.

The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0% during its September 24 monetary policy assessment.

Swiss inflation increased from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August, largely reflecting higher prices for oil products.

The SNB expects inflation to average 0.7% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and 0.8% in 2028 under its September forecast.

The central bank also indicated that it remains willing to intervene in foreign exchange markets when necessary to maintain appropriate monetary conditions.

This is an important consideration because the Swiss franc’s relative strength can complicate the SNB’s efforts to maintain favourable economic conditions.

What Could Move USD/CHF?

The pair will remain sensitive to movements in US bond yields and international risk appetite.

If investors become more concerned about geopolitical developments or financial market instability, demand for the Swiss franc could increase.

Conversely, improved risk appetite and stronger US economic data could favour the dollar against the franc.

SkyPress USD/CHF Forecast

The outlook is cautiously neutral, with a slight potential for franc strength if global uncertainty increases.

However, the difference between US and Swiss interest rates continues to provide an important source of support for the dollar.

8. NZD/USD Forecast: New Zealand Inflation and Global Demand in Focus

The New Zealand dollar enters the week facing a combination of domestic inflation pressures and uncertainty about the wider global economic environment.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its Official Cash Rate at 2.75% following its October policy meeting. The decision was reached through a 4–3 vote, highlighting differences among policymakers.

Annual consumer inflation declined to 3.7% in the September quarter from 4.1% in June.

Although this represented an improvement, the central bank noted that some underlying inflation measures had moved towards the upper end of its 1%–3% target band.

Fuel prices and global energy market disruptions remain important risks to the inflation outlook.

The RBNZ expects annual inflation to rise to approximately 4.4% in the December quarter, largely reflecting higher fuel costs.

This creates a difficult environment for policymakers because higher inflation may require a more restrictive monetary policy stance, even as the economy continues to recover unevenly.

China and Global Risk Appetite

Like Australia, New Zealand has important economic connections with China. Changes in Chinese demand can influence expectations for New Zealand’s agricultural and commodity exports.

Stronger Chinese economic activity could improve sentiment towards the New Zealand dollar, while disappointing trade and inflation figures could have the opposite effect.

SkyPress NZD/USD Forecast

NZD/USD has a cautiously bearish to neutral outlook.

The RBNZ’s relatively low policy rate compared with the Federal Reserve creates a potential disadvantage for the New Zealand dollar. However, softer US inflation could help the pair recover.

Chinese economic performance and changes in global investor confidence will also influence the outlook.

Economic Calendar: Important Forex Events for November 9–13

The following releases are among the developments that currency market participants should monitor during the week.

Important: The US CPI and PPI figures above are scheduled releases. The previous readings and forecasts are not confirmed outcomes. Economic calendar times should also be checked against official release schedules before publication or market decisions.

The US bond market will be closed on Wednesday, November 11, for Veterans Day, although US equity markets are scheduled to remain open. Reduced bond-market participation could affect liquidity and the interpretation of movements in US yields.

For readers in East Africa, the major US inflation releases scheduled for 13:30 GMT are expected at 4:30 p.m. East African Time, subject to the published release schedule.

SkyPress Weekly Currency Outlook: Directional Assessment

Based on the latest central-bank developments, inflation expectations and scheduled economic releases, SkyPress identifies the following potential market biases for the coming week.

These assessments represent conditional fundamental outlooks rather than guaranteed price directions. A major economic surprise could quickly change the balance of risks.

What Could Change the Forex Market Outlook?

Although central-bank policy remains an important influence, several developments could challenge the current expectations.

1. A Stronger US Inflation Surprise

If October CPI exceeds market expectations, investors could anticipate a longer period of restrictive US monetary policy. This could strengthen the dollar across several major pairs.

2. Lower-than-Expected US Inflation

A meaningful decline in inflation could reduce expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Such a development could provide relief to the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

3. Further Increases in Global Energy Prices

Continued geopolitical disruptions could keep energy prices elevated. This may create additional inflation pressures, influencing central-bank decisions in the United Kingdom, Europe, Canada and other economies.

4. Unexpected Central Bank Communications

Comments from policymakers can influence currencies even without an official interest-rate decision. Investors will pay particular attention to the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia as they assess the implications of persistent inflation.

Conclusion: A Data-Driven Week for Major Currency Pairs

The November 9–13 trading week could prove important for the direction of the major currency pairs as investors assess whether inflation pressures are becoming more persistent or beginning to moderate.

The US dollar’s performance will probably remain central to the broader market outlook, particularly because Tuesday’s inflation report could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Australia’s recent interest-rate increase provides an important fundamental consideration for AUD/USD, while oil prices and global risk sentiment will continue influencing the Canadian and Swiss currencies.

For the New Zealand dollar, the combination of domestic inflation, interest-rate expectations and Chinese economic performance will remain important.

Ultimately, the coming week is likely to reward careful analysis of economic surprises and changing interest-rate expectations rather than assumptions based solely on previous price movements.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which currency pairs should investors watch this week?

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and NZD/USD are the seven major pairs to monitor. US inflation figures are particularly important because they can influence several of these markets simultaneously.

What is the most important economic release for forex markets this week?

The US October Consumer Price Index scheduled for November 10 is likely to be the week’s most influential release. It could change expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy and influence the US dollar.

Could the US dollar strengthen in November?

Yes. Stronger-than-expected inflation and economic activity could support the dollar by reinforcing expectations of relatively restrictive monetary policy. However, weaker data could create downward pressure.

Why is the Japanese yen sensitive to US interest rates?

The difference between US and Japanese interest rates influences the relative returns available on dollar- and yen-denominated assets. A wide interest-rate differential can encourage demand for the dollar, although exchange-rate movements also depend on risk sentiment and expectations for future policy decisions.

Does a central-bank interest-rate increase always strengthen a currency?

No. Currency markets respond to expectations as well as actual decisions. If an increase has already been anticipated, its impact may be limited. Investors also consider economic growth, inflation, future policy guidance and global market conditions.

Related SkyPress Forex Coverage

Explore more currency-market analysis and educational resources from SkyPress:

• Forex Markets and Trading Education – SkyPress
• Forex Week Ahead: Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen and Aussie in Focus
• Asian Forex Outlook: Dollar Strength, Yen and Regional Currencies

Sources and Research References

This SkyPress report combines central-bank publications, economic data and market-calendar information. Figures and policy decisions have been retained where relevant, while the market interpretation and pair-by-pair outlook have been independently developed by SkyPress.

• Federal Reserve – Monetary policy information and US economic indicators.
• Bank of England – November 2026 Monetary Policy Report and November 5 rate decision.
• European Central Bank – October 29 monetary policy statement and inflation assessment.
• Reserve Bank of Australia – November 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy and financial conditions.
• Bank of Canada – October 28 monetary policy decision and economic outlook.
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand – October monetary policy decision and inflation assessment.
• Swiss National Bank – September 24 monetary policy assessment.
• CME Group – Bank of Japan October 2026 policy decision.
• OANDA – November 2026 foreign exchange market outlook.
• 1TRADER Economic Calendar – Scheduled economic releases for November 9–13, 2026.

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