Kenya Business Activity Rebounds as Safaricom Posts KSh58.2 Billion Half-Year Profit in HY2027

SkyPress Desk | SkyPress News November 5, 2026 12 min read

Kenya’s economic and corporate outlook received two important developments this week, with private-sector business activity strengthening in October and Safaricom PLC reporting a substantial increase in half-year earnings for the six months ended September 2026.

Kenya’s private-sector activity strengthened in October, with the Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rising to 52.5 from 51.3 in September. This marked the strongest improvement in Kenyan private-sector business conditions recorded in 2026. Meanwhile, Safaricom reported a 35.9% increase in group net earnings to KSh58.2 billion in its HY2026/2027 financial results, supported by continued growth in Kenya and improving performance at its Ethiopian subsidiary.

Although the two developments measure different aspects of the economy, together they provide an indication of improving commercial activity, expanding digital financial services and the importance of large corporate earnings to investor confidence.

Key Takeaways

Kenya’s October PMI increased to 52.5 from 51.3 in September, signalling stronger private-sector business conditions.
Safaricom’s group net earnings increased 35.9% to KSh58.2 billion in HY2026/2027.
M-PESA revenue crossed KSh100 billion for the first time in a half-year reporting period.
Safaricom’s Ethiopian subsidiary reduced its net loss by 43.2% to KSh8.8 billion.
Rising fuel, transport and operating costs remain significant challenges for Kenyan businesses.
The latest developments put corporate earnings, consumer spending and NSE performance under renewed investor attention.

Kenya PMI Reaches Its Highest Level in 2026

Kenya’s private sector recorded an improvement in October as businesses experienced stronger customer demand, increased sales opportunities and a recovery in new orders.

The Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 52.5 from 51.3 in September. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business conditions compared with the previous month, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

The October survey was conducted between October 12 and 28 among approximately 400 private-sector companies.

One of the most encouraging developments was the acceleration in new orders, which increased at the fastest pace in almost a year. Businesses attributed the improvement to customer referrals, increased customer visits and new contracts and tenders.

Sales volumes also increased for the fifth consecutive month, while approximately 31% of surveyed businesses reported higher output in October compared with 23% that experienced a decline.

Manufacturing Leads the Recovery as Construction Remains Under Pressure

The improvement was not evenly distributed across the economy.

Manufacturing recorded the strongest increases in output and new orders among the five sectors monitored by the PMI survey. The improvement suggests that stronger customer demand is beginning to support production activity.

Construction, however, remained an area of weakness, with businesses reporting lower sales compared with September.

The difference highlights an important aspect of Kenya’s recovery: stronger aggregate business activity does not necessarily mean that all industries are experiencing similar improvements.

For manufacturers, increased orders could support production, inventory expansion and investment in capacity. However, construction businesses may continue facing challenges associated with financing, project demand and operating expenses.

Rising Costs Threaten to Weaken Business Recovery

Despite the stronger PMI reading, the October survey identified a significant challenge facing Kenyan businesses: rising input costs.

Input-cost inflation accelerated to its highest level since November 2023, with companies reporting higher fuel, transport and supplier expenses.

According to the survey findings reported by The Star, 36% of surveyed firms experienced higher input costs, compared with only 2% that recorded a decline.

Businesses responded by increasing selling prices to protect their profit margins. The survey’s output-price index reached its second-highest level in three years.

The pressures also coincide with an increase in Kenya’s annual inflation rate to 7.3% in October from 6.8% in September, according to the reported Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures.

Higher transport and food prices are particularly important because they affect both business operating expenses and household purchasing power.

When consumers spend more on essential goods and transport, they may have less disposable income for other products and services. This can eventually limit the ability of businesses to convert higher order volumes into sustained revenue growth.

Employment Growth Remains Cautious

Employment increased for the fifth consecutive month, although the pace of job creation slowed to its weakest level during the current expansion.

Businesses also reported increasing outstanding workloads, suggesting that some companies were struggling to process stronger orders because of funding gaps and operational delays.

This is an important distinction for the broader economy. An increase in orders is encouraging, but sustainable economic growth requires businesses to expand production, improve cash flow and create additional employment.

Business confidence nevertheless improved considerably. The proportion of companies expecting higher activity over the following 12 months increased to 51% in October from 31% in September, reaching its highest level since March 2020.

Safaricom HY2026/2027 Results: Net Earnings Rise to KSh58.2 Billion

Against this improving but cost-sensitive economic backdrop, Safaricom delivered a strong half-year financial performance.

The telecommunications and technology company reported group net earnings of KSh58.2 billion for the six months ended September 2026, representing a 35.9% increase compared with the corresponding period last year.

Group service revenue increased by 11.3% to KSh226.1 billion, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 27.5% to KSh129.2 billion.

Operating profit, measured by earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), increased 39.8% to KSh91.1 billion.

The performance is particularly significant because the reported earnings exceeded the approximately KSh54.32 billion attributable-profit forecast discussed in our November 3 analysis of Safaricom and the Nairobi Securities Exchange.

The comparison suggests that the company’s earnings performance was stronger than that earlier analyst consensus, although differences in forecast samples and reporting definitions should be considered when comparing estimates with reported figures.

M-PESA Crosses the KSh100 Billion Revenue Milestone

One of the most important developments in Safaricom’s HY2027 results was the performance of M-PESA.

The mobile financial services platform generated KSh100.1 billion in revenue, representing growth of 13.6% from the corresponding period a year earlier.

This was the first time M-PESA crossed the KSh100 billion revenue mark in a half-year reporting period.

The platform processed 27.4 billion transactions during the six months, an increase of 25.2%. The combined value of transactions reached KSh23.6 trillion, representing growth of 16.6%.

Chargeable transactions increased by 48.2% to 12.9 billion, accounting for 47% of total transaction volumes compared with 39.7% in the previous corresponding period.

Consumer payments generated KSh40.8 billion, while business payments contributed KSh31 billion. Financial services revenue recorded particularly strong growth of 55.3% to KSh7.1 billion, while global payments revenue increased 26.6% to KSh2.8 billion.

These figures demonstrate how M-PESA has developed beyond its original role in person-to-person money transfers into a broader digital payments and financial services ecosystem.

For Safaricom, the continued expansion of business payments, consumer transactions and financial services provides additional revenue opportunities and strengthens the importance of its digital financial infrastructure.

Safaricom Ethiopia Reduces Losses as Expansion Gains Ground

Safaricom’s Ethiopian operation also made significant progress during the reporting period.

The subsidiary reduced its net loss by 43.2% to KSh8.8 billion, while service revenue increased by 71.6% to KSh10.6 billion.

Its EBITDA loss narrowed substantially to KSh400 million, representing a 96.5% reduction. The Ethiopian operation’s EBIT loss also declined by 53.4% to KSh11.4 billion.

The improvement is important because Ethiopia has been a major investment market for Safaricom since the company entered the country in 2022.

Its growing customer base and expanding telecommunications and financial services operations provide an opportunity for long-term regional growth. However, the subsidiary remains loss-making, and the latest results should not be interpreted as evidence that it has already achieved full profitability.

The reduction in losses nevertheless indicates that the financial burden associated with the expansion is becoming smaller relative to the previous reporting period.

What the PMI and Safaricom Results Mean for Kenya’s Economy

The combination of improving business activity and stronger corporate earnings offers an encouraging signal for Kenya’s economic outlook.

Stronger customer orders suggest that demand is improving across parts of the private sector. At the same time, Safaricom’s results demonstrate how digital payments, mobile connectivity and financial services continue to generate substantial commercial value.

There is also an important connection between the expansion of digital payments and business activity.

As more businesses use mobile financial services to receive payments, pay suppliers and manage transactions, the digital payments ecosystem becomes increasingly important to everyday commercial operations.

M-PESA’s transaction growth therefore reflects more than an increase in platform usage. It also illustrates the expanding role of digital financial infrastructure in Kenya’s business environment.

However, Safaricom’s financial performance should not be treated as a direct measure of the entire Kenyan economy. The company’s results include regional operations and revenue streams that extend beyond domestic business conditions.

Similarly, the PMI measures changes in business conditions rather than the absolute size of economic output.

The two developments are best understood as complementary indicators of activity rather than evidence that every part of the economy is experiencing a similar recovery.

NSE Investors Turn Attention to Corporate Earnings

Safaricom’s latest results also bring renewed attention to the Nairobi Securities Exchange, where investors continue assessing the earnings outlook of major listed companies.

As one of the exchange’s most closely followed telecommunications stocks, Safaricom’s performance carries significance beyond its own shareholders. Its results provide an important reference point for assessing corporate profitability, digital financial services growth and the resilience of large Kenyan businesses.

In our November 3 market analysis, SkyPress examined how anticipated Safaricom earnings could influence investor attention towards other NSE-listed companies, including Equity Group Holdings, KCB Group, Kenya Power and Kenya Airways.

The latest results now provide confirmed financial information against which earlier expectations can be assessed.

However, stronger earnings do not automatically translate into an immediate increase in a company’s share price. Investors also consider valuation, dividend expectations, future earnings guidance, market liquidity and the price already reflected in the stock.

For other listed companies, the improving PMI could provide a supportive economic backdrop, particularly where stronger household demand and business activity translate into higher revenues.

Nevertheless, banks, manufacturers, energy companies and aviation businesses face different operating conditions. Higher fuel prices, borrowing costs, customer affordability and credit quality can influence their earnings in different ways.

Consequently, the next phase of NSE market analysis will depend on how individual companies translate improving economic conditions into actual financial performance.

What Investors and Businesses Should Watch Next

Several developments will be important in assessing whether the current improvement can continue.

Safaricom’s full-year performance: Investors will be watching whether M-PESA growth, stronger Kenyan operations and reduced Ethiopian losses can be sustained during the second half of FY2027.
Private-sector demand: Future PMI readings will indicate whether the increase in new orders and output represents a lasting recovery.
Inflation and operating costs: Fuel, transport and supplier expenses could continue affecting corporate margins and consumer spending.
Employment and household income: Stronger hiring would help determine whether improved business activity is translating into wider economic benefits.
NSE corporate earnings: Upcoming financial reports from listed companies will help establish whether the improving economic environment is supporting broader corporate profitability.

SkyPress Analysis: Stronger Earnings, but the Recovery Still Needs to Reach More Businesses

Kenya’s latest PMI reading and Safaricom’s half-year results tell two complementary stories about the country’s business environment.

On one side, private-sector demand is improving, with stronger orders, increased business confidence and a return to output growth. On the other, a major Kenyan-listed company has demonstrated its ability to expand earnings through digital financial services, telecommunications and regional operations.

Yet the underlying challenges remain significant.

Rising operating costs, inflation and limited recruitment could prevent smaller businesses from benefiting fully from the improvement in demand. For large companies, the challenge is to maintain revenue growth while protecting margins and managing investment commitments.

Safaricom’s Ethiopian performance will also remain important. Continued reductions in losses could strengthen group profitability, but achieving sustainable profitability in that market will require further operational progress.

For investors, the central question is no longer simply whether Safaricom can deliver stronger earnings. The latest results have demonstrated that improvement. Attention now shifts to the sustainability of that performance and whether other listed companies can deliver comparable progress.

For Kenya’s broader economy, the more important test will be whether improving business confidence translates into sustained production, stronger employment and better household purchasing power.

The October PMI provides an encouraging starting point. Safaricom’s HY2027 results provide a strong corporate earnings example. Whether these developments mark the beginning of a broader and more durable recovery will become clearer in the coming months.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Kenya’s PMI reading in October 2026?

Kenya’s Stanbic Bank PMI increased to 52.5 in October from 51.3 in September, indicating an improvement in private-sector business conditions and the strongest reading recorded in 2026 so far.

How much profit did Safaricom report in HY2026/2027?

Safaricom reported group net earnings of KSh58.2 billion for the six months ended September 2026, representing a 35.9% increase from the corresponding period a year earlier.

How much revenue did M-PESA generate?

M-PESA generated KSh100.1 billion in revenue during the first half of FY2027, representing 13.6% growth year on year.

Is Safaricom Ethiopia profitable?

No. Its Ethiopian subsidiary remained loss-making, but reduced its net loss by 43.2% to KSh8.8 billion during the reporting period.

Does a PMI reading above 50 mean Kenya’s economy is booming?

No. A reading above 50 indicates that private-sector business conditions improved compared with the previous month. It does not mean that every industry is growing or that the economy has entered a broad-based boom.

Will Safaricom’s stronger earnings automatically increase its NSE share price?

Not necessarily. Share prices also reflect company valuations, investor expectations, future earnings prospects, dividend considerations and broader market conditions.

Sources and Editorial Transparency

This SkyPress report draws on the October 2026 Stanbic Bank Kenya PMI findings compiled by S&P Global, Safaricom’s HY2026/2027 financial performance as reported on November 5, 2026, and related coverage from Kenyan and international business news organisations.

Editorial note: SkyPress has independently organised and analysed the reported developments to explain their wider economic and market implications. Forecasts and historical comparisons are distinguished from reported financial results. This article is intended for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment or financial advice.