Safaricom Earnings Outlook Puts Nairobi Securities Exchange Stocks in Focus as Investors Assess Equity, KCB, KPLC and Kenya Airways

SkyPress Desk | SkyPress News November 3, 2026 10 min read

Kenya’s stock market is heading into an important week as investors prepare for Safaricom PLC’s half-year results, scheduled for Thursday, November 5, 2026. Analysts are forecasting stronger earnings, with improving performance in Ethiopia expected to provide an important boost to the telecommunications company’s profitability.

The results could influence investor sentiment towards one of the Nairobi Securities Exchange’s (NSE) most closely watched companies. However, Safaricom is not the only listed counter attracting attention. Equity Group Holdings, KCB Group, Kenya Airways and Kenya Power have each reported developments that illustrate the different opportunities and risks shaping Kenya’s equity market.

For investors, the bigger question is whether stronger corporate earnings can sustain market valuations at a time when trading activity has shown signs of weakening.

Safaricom HY2027: Analysts Anticipate Stronger Earnings

Safaricom is expected to report shareholder-attributable profit of approximately KSh54.32 billion for the six months ending September 2026, according to forecasts compiled from five research contributors by The Kenyan Wall Street.

That would represent a 27% increase from the KSh42.78 billion recorded during the corresponding period in FY2026.

The forecasts also point to:

Group service revenue rising 11.5% to approximately KSh222.75 billion.
EBITDA increasing 17.6% to KSh119.07 billion.
Reported operating profit (EBIT) climbing 30.5% to KSh85.10 billion.
Earnings per share increasing to approximately KSh1.35 from KSh1.07.

A separate analyst compilation published by TechTrendsKE on November 3 places projected attributable profit at KSh55.16 billion, with service revenue estimated at KSh222.53 billion and EBITDA at KSh121.36 billion.

The difference between the estimates reflects variations in analyst samples and forecasting methods. Neither figure represents Safaricom’s confirmed results.

The central factor behind the optimistic outlook is the anticipated reduction in losses from Safaricom Ethiopia.

Ethiopia Moves Closer to Operating Breakeven

Safaricom’s Ethiopian operation has required substantial investment as the company expands its network, customer base and mobile financial services in the country’s competitive telecommunications market.

The business recorded service revenue growth of 130.9% in FY2026, reaching ETB15.9 billion. Its 90-day active customer base increased to 13.6 million, while M-PESA customers more than doubled to 5.2 million.

For HY2027, analysts expect the Ethiopian operation’s EBITDA loss to narrow substantially, with some estimates placing it close to KSh1 billion.

The distinction between EBITDA and net profit is important. Reaching EBITDA breakeven would indicate that the operation is covering operating expenses before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation. It would not automatically mean that the subsidiary has become profitable after all expenses.

Safaricom’s November 5 announcement will therefore provide an important test of whether its Ethiopian expansion is progressing towards the group’s FY2027 targets.

Kenya remains the group’s established earnings engine, supported by M-PESA, mobile data, voice services and enterprise connectivity. The ability to maintain growth in these businesses while reducing Ethiopia’s losses will be central to the group’s financial performance.

Equity Group: Regional Expansion Supports Earnings Growth

Equity Group Holdings delivered a strong first-half performance, reporting a 32% increase in profit after tax to KSh45.5 billion for the six months ended June 2026, compared with KSh34.6 billion in the previous corresponding period.

Profit before tax increased by 39% to KSh57.8 billion.

The group’s total income rose 25% to KSh124.9 billion, while non-funded income increased 36% to KSh55.6 billion. This income category includes revenue from services beyond traditional interest-based lending.

Equity’s balance sheet also expanded by 20% to KSh2.16 trillion, supported by a 21% increase in customer deposits and 19% growth in net loans.

One notable development was the improvement in asset quality. The group’s non-performing loan ratio declined to 9.5% from 13.7%, while its cost-to-income ratio improved to 48.6%.

Regional operations remain important to Equity’s growth strategy, with subsidiaries in Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo recording substantial profit increases.

The next major event to watch is the group’s scheduled Q3 2026 results and investor briefing on November 11.

For the market, Equity’s performance demonstrates how regional diversification and growth in non-funded income can strengthen a bank’s earnings beyond its domestic lending operations.

KCB Group: Higher Profits and an Increased Interim Dividend

KCB Group is another major banking counter attracting investor attention following its first-half 2026 results.

The lender reported a 20.8% increase in profit before tax to KSh49.3 billion, up from KSh40.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2025.

Total operating income increased to KSh108.1 billion, supported by growth in both interest and non-funded income.

The group’s balance sheet expanded to KSh2.30 trillion, while customer deposits increased to KSh1.71 trillion.

KCB also reported an improvement in asset quality. Gross non-performing loans declined by KSh17.3 billion year-on-year to KSh203.8 billion, bringing the non-performing loan ratio down to 15.1% from 18.7%.

Shareholders have another development to watch: the board approved an interim dividend of KSh3 per share, a 50% increase from the KSh2 paid in the previous corresponding period.

The payment is scheduled for November 10, 2026, to shareholders who qualified under the September 2 register date.

Although KCB’s results indicate stronger earnings and improving credit quality, the bank’s elevated non-performing loan ratio remains an important measure to monitor. The pace of loan recoveries and the cost of credit risk will continue to influence profitability.

Kenya Airways: Revenue Growth Faces Pressure from Operating Costs

Kenya Airways presents a different picture from the banking and telecommunications companies.

The airline reported a 9% increase in revenue to approximately KSh81 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The improvement came despite operating with 9% less capacity, reflecting stronger aircraft utilisation and passenger demand.

However, higher operating costs weakened the financial outcome.

Fuel costs increased by 32% compared with the previous year, while total operating costs rose by 14%. Fuel accounted for approximately 32% of total operating expenses.

Consequently, Kenya Airways recorded a half-year loss after tax of approximately KSh16.1 billion, compared with a KSh12.2 billion loss in the same period of 2025.

The airline has identified fleet restoration, cost management, cash preservation and capital raising as important priorities in its recovery strategy. Additional aircraft returned to service after the reporting period, potentially supporting capacity and operational flexibility.

For NSE investors, KQ’s performance highlights the difference between revenue growth and sustainable profitability. Higher passenger demand does not necessarily translate into stronger earnings when fuel, maintenance, financing and other operating expenses remain elevated.

Kenya Power: Higher Electricity Sales Support Annual Profit

Kenya Power reported a profit after tax of KSh24.99 billion for the financial year ended June 30, 2026, representing a 2.13% increase from the previous financial year’s KSh24.4 billion.

Revenue increased to KSh238.24 billion, while electricity sales grew approximately 12% to 12,777 gigawatt-hours.

The company attributed the improved performance partly to 411,710 new customer connections and better distribution and transmission efficiency.

Financing costs also declined by 34.68% to KSh3.08 billion, helping support the bottom line.

Kenya Power’s board recommended a total dividend of KSh1.50 per ordinary share, comprising the interim and final dividend.

However, the company’s operating performance still deserves close attention. While revenue and net profit increased, the improvement in profitability was relatively modest compared with the growth in electricity sales. Operating expenses, infrastructure investment, system efficiency and the cost of supplying electricity will remain important considerations.

The results nevertheless indicate progress in the company’s financial position and its ability to support network expansion.

NSE Market Outlook: Strong Valuations, but Trading Activity Remains a Concern

The broader Nairobi Securities Exchange has experienced significant changes in market valuation during 2026.

According to figures reported from the Capital Markets Authority’s third-quarter statistical bulletin, market capitalisation increased by 9.57% to approximately KSh4.12 trillion in September, from KSh3.76 trillion in June.

However, the increase in market value was accompanied by a sharp reduction in trading activity. Equity turnover declined by 72.44% to KSh72.72 billion during the third quarter, compared with KSh263.87 billion in the second quarter.

This presents an important distinction for market observers: a rising market valuation does not necessarily mean that investors are trading shares more actively.

The upcoming Safaricom results arrive against this background. Strong earnings could reinforce confidence in large listed companies, but investors will still need to assess share valuations, liquidity, dividend prospects and the sustainability of reported profits.

What Investors Will Be Watching This Week

Safaricom’s November 5 results: Whether actual earnings meet or exceed analyst forecasts, particularly on Ethiopia’s operating losses and Kenya’s profitability.
Equity Group’s November 11 results: Whether first-half earnings momentum and improvements in asset quality continue into the third quarter.
KCB’s interim dividend: The scheduled November 10 payment and the bank’s continued progress in reducing non-performing loans.
Kenya Airways’ recovery: Whether fleet restoration and cost management can improve margins after the wider first-half loss.
Kenya Power’s financial position: Whether higher electricity demand, improved efficiency and lower financing costs can support sustainable earnings growth.

The most important consideration is that these companies operate in different sectors and face different financial risks. Comparing their reported profits without considering their business models, balance sheets and operating conditions can produce misleading conclusions.

The Bigger Picture for Kenya’s Stock Market

The latest corporate results reveal an NSE with several different earnings stories unfolding simultaneously.

Safaricom is pursuing growth while reducing the cost of its Ethiopian expansion. Equity and KCB are benefiting from stronger banking income and regional operations, although credit quality remains important. Kenya Airways is still working through substantial cost and operational challenges, while Kenya Power is reporting improved electricity sales and a stronger financial position.

These developments show why investors increasingly need to look beyond share-price movements and examine the financial performance supporting each listed company.

Safaricom’s November 5 results may become an important near-term market event, but the wider direction of the NSE will also depend on corporate earnings, economic conditions, investor participation and the ability of listed companies to convert revenue growth into sustainable profits.

For the Kenyan market, the test is not simply whether companies report higher numbers. It is whether those improvements can be maintained.

Key Takeaways

Safaricom analysts expect HY2027 shareholder-attributable profit to rise by approximately 27%, with Ethiopia’s narrowing losses a major factor.
Equity Group reported a 32% increase in first-half profit after tax to KSh45.5 billion.
KCB Group recorded a 20.8% increase in first-half profit before tax and approved a KSh3 interim dividend per share.
Kenya Airways’ revenue increased by 9%, but its half-year loss widened to approximately KSh16.1 billion.
Kenya Power reported KSh24.99 billion in FY2026 profit after tax, supported by higher electricity sales and lower financing costs.
NSE market capitalisation rose in the third quarter even as equity turnover declined sharply.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will Safaricom announce its HY2027 results?

Safaricom is scheduled to announce its unaudited half-year results on Thursday, November 5, 2026.

How much profit are analysts forecasting for Safaricom?

One five-contributor forecast compilation estimates shareholder-attributable profit of KSh54.32 billion, approximately 27% higher than the KSh42.78 billion recorded in HY2026. Another analyst compilation gives a higher estimate of KSh55.16 billion.

How did Equity Group perform in the first half of 2026?

Equity Group reported profit after tax of KSh45.5 billion, representing 32% growth year-on-year.

What dividend did KCB Group approve?

KCB approved an interim dividend of KSh3 per share, 50% higher than the KSh2 paid in the corresponding period of 2025.

Is Kenya Airways profitable?

Kenya Airways reported a half-year loss after tax of approximately KSh16.1 billion for the six months ended June 2026, despite revenue growth.

Did Kenya Power increase its profit in FY2026?

Yes. Kenya Power reported profit after tax of KSh24.99 billion, up 2.13% from the previous financial year.

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Sources and Editorial Transparency

This SkyPress article draws on company financial announcements, investor disclosures and independent financial reporting. Key references include:

Editorial note: Analyst estimates are projections, not confirmed company results. Financial figures refer to the reporting periods stated and may use different accounting measures, including profit before tax, profit after tax and EBITDA.

Disclaimer

SkyPress is an educational and financial media platform. Nothing in this article should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investors should conduct independent research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

SkyPress Desk | SkyPress News
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