Forex Week Ahead: Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen and Aussie in Focus as Jobs and Inflation Data Arrive

Week of September 28–October 2, 2026 | By SkyPress Desk | SkyPress News

Forex markets enter the final week of September with several major catalysts lined up across the United States, Europe, Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada and Switzerland. The U.S. dollar begins the week with renewed momentum after Treasury yields climbed and markets increased expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence inflation expectations and central-bank policy.

The most important events for currency markets this week include the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate decision, Australian inflation data, euro-area inflation, U.S. personal income and spending data, the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey and, most importantly, the September U.S. employment report on Friday.

For forex traders and market observers, the central question is whether the recent dollar advance can extend into October or whether incoming economic data will force markets to reassess the current interest-rate outlook.

Dollar Starts the Week With Strong Momentum

Pair focus: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD.

The U.S. dollar finished the previous week with broad gains. Reuters reported that the dollar was heading for a second consecutive weekly advance, supported by higher Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a relatively firm policy stance. EUR/USD fell to around 1.1370, while GBP/USD traded close to 1.3220.

The dollar’s recent strength has also been linked to renewed inflation concerns. Oil prices remain elevated compared with earlier in the year, while the global bond market has experienced significant selling pressure. Those conditions can influence currency markets because higher inflation expectations can alter expectations for future interest rates.

The U.S. calendar now becomes particularly important. Wednesday brings personal income, personal spending and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, while Friday’s employment report could provide the week’s largest catalyst.

August payrolls increased by 162,000 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. The September employment report is scheduled for October 2.

EUR/USD: Euro Faces Inflation and Growth Tests

EUR/USD enters the new week under pressure after the dollar’s broad recovery pushed the pair toward a two-month low near 1.1370.

The euro’s main fundamental event arrives at the end of the week when preliminary September euro-area inflation figures are scheduled for release. The economic calendar currently shows expectations for headline inflation of approximately 3.7% year-on-year, compared with 3.2% previously, while core inflation is expected around 2.5% compared with 2.4%.

That inflation increase is important because higher energy costs have become an increasingly significant part of the European inflation story. MUFG expects euro-area headline inflation to rise further in September and has highlighted the possibility that higher energy prices could keep pressure on the European Central Bank.

Germany’s preliminary CPI figures will also arrive on Wednesday before the broader euro-area release on Friday.

What to watch: A stronger-than-expected euro-area inflation reading could reinforce expectations for a less accommodative ECB policy path. Conversely, softer inflation or weaker economic indicators could reduce pressure on European rates and leave EUR/USD more exposed to the dollar’s yield advantage.

GBP/USD: Sterling Remains Sensitive to Inflation and Growth Expectations

GBP/USD enters the week after falling toward the 1.3220 area, with sterling facing a combination of domestic economic uncertainty and renewed dollar strength.

The British calendar is comparatively lighter than the U.S. and euro-area schedules, but several releases are still relevant. Tuesday includes UK M4 money supply and mortgage approvals, while Wednesday brings the final second-quarter GDP figures and current-account data.

Thursday’s final manufacturing PMI will provide an early indication of business conditions as the new quarter begins.

The market will also monitor commentary from Bank of England officials. Inflation expectations remain particularly important because energy prices can influence both headline inflation and the outlook for monetary policy.

What to watch: Stronger UK activity data could help sterling stabilize, while weaker growth indicators combined with stronger U.S. data could leave GBP/USD vulnerable to renewed dollar demand.

USD/JPY: Yen Traders Watch Rates, Inflation and Intervention Risk

USD/JPY remains one of the most closely watched major pairs as the Japanese yen trades against a backdrop of changing Bank of Japan expectations and renewed intervention sensitivity.

State Street Investment Management recently highlighted the 155–160 region as an important range for USD/JPY, while noting increasing attention toward the possibility of a move lower as Japanese yields rise. Separately, recent market reporting has pointed to intervention concerns around elevated USD/JPY levels.

The Japanese economic calendar is also active. BoJ meeting minutes arrive early in the week, followed by industrial production and retail-sales figures. Thursday brings the BoJ Summary of Opinions and Tankan business-survey data. Friday then brings Japan’s unemployment rate and Tokyo inflation data.

Tokyo CPI is particularly important because it can provide an early indication of underlying price pressures in Japan.

What to watch: Strong Japanese inflation or hawkish signals from the BoJ could support the yen. On the other hand, a renewed rise in U.S. yields could continue to support USD/JPY. Any official comments concerning currency-market intervention could also produce sharp short-term moves.

AUD/USD: RBA Decision and Inflation Create a Double Catalyst

AUD/USD is entering one of the most important weeks for the Australian dollar this month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its monetary-policy decision on Tuesday, September 29, followed by a press conference. The current calendar consensus points to a cash rate of 4.60%, compared with 4.35% previously.

That decision is followed almost immediately by Australian CPI data on Wednesday. The calendar shows the previous headline CPI reading at 3.5% year-on-year and trimmed-mean inflation at 3.6% year-on-year.

The sequence is significant. The RBA decision will establish the immediate policy signal, while the inflation report could influence expectations for what comes next.

AUD/USD was recently testing the 0.7000 region, according to ActionForex market analysis.

What to watch: A firm RBA message followed by stronger inflation could increase Australian rate expectations and support the Australian dollar. A softer inflation outcome, particularly if accompanied by cautious RBA communication, could produce the opposite reaction.

USD/CAD: Oil Prices Remain a Major Variable

The Canadian dollar enters the week with an important external driver: crude oil.

Canada is one of the major commodity-linked economies, meaning changes in oil prices can influence the Canadian dollar through trade and terms-of-trade expectations.

Oil prices have remained above $100 a barrel amid continuing supply concerns and geopolitical developments, although prices recently eased as markets assessed the possibility of improved supply conditions.

Canada’s calendar includes July GDP data on Tuesday and a manufacturing PMI reading on Thursday.

What to watch: Stronger oil prices and firm Canadian economic data could provide support for CAD. A renewed rise in the U.S. dollar, higher U.S. yields or a decline in crude prices could instead increase upward pressure on USD/CAD.

USD/CHF: Swiss Franc Remains a Safe-Haven Variable

USD/CHF has been one of the notable dollar pairs during the recent U.S. dollar advance. Recent technical analysis from FOREX.com noted that USD/CHF had reached fresh yearly highs, although stretched momentum had raised the possibility of a short-term consolidation.

Switzerland’s calendar provides CPI data and manufacturing PMI figures on Thursday. The Swiss franc can also respond to changes in global risk sentiment, particularly during periods of financial-market stress.

What to watch: Stronger U.S. yields may continue to support USD/CHF, while weaker dollar momentum or increased demand for traditional defensive currencies could change the short-term dynamics.

NZD/USD: China and Global Risk Sentiment Matter

NZD/USD does not have the same concentration of high-impact domestic events as AUD/USD this week, but the New Zealand dollar remains sensitive to global risk appetite and developments in China.

ANZ business-confidence and activity-outlook data arrive early Wednesday, while China’s manufacturing and services PMI figures will also be released.

Because China is an important trading partner for New Zealand and Australia, Chinese economic activity can influence expectations for commodity demand and regional growth.

What to watch: Stronger Chinese activity data and improved global risk appetite could help support NZD/USD, while renewed dollar strength or weaker Chinese indicators could weigh on the pair.

The Economic Calendar: Key Events for the Week Ahead

Times below are shown in East Africa Time (EAT, UTC+3) for readers following the market from Kenya. Economic-calendar times can change, so traders should verify the final release time with their preferred calendar.

Friday Could Define the Dollar’s October Direction

The U.S. employment report is likely to be the week’s most closely watched release.

The current calendar consensus calls for September nonfarm payroll growth of approximately 100,000, compared with 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month.

The significance of the report goes beyond the headline payroll number. Currency markets will also examine wage growth, unemployment and revisions to previous employment data.

A stronger-than-expected labor-market report could reinforce expectations for a firm Federal Reserve policy path, particularly if wage growth remains elevated. A weaker report could have the opposite effect by raising questions about the sustainability of U.S. economic momentum.

That makes Friday particularly important for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

Major Currency Pairs: What Could Drive Them This Week?

Market Scenarios to Monitor

Rather than treating the week as a one-directional market call, traders can monitor how economic surprises interact with interest-rate expectations.

Scenario 1: Strong U.S. Data

If U.S. employment, inflation or manufacturing data outperform expectations, Treasury yields could receive additional support. That environment could put renewed pressure on several USD-denominated major pairs.

Scenario 2: Softer U.S. Data

If employment or inflation data disappoint, markets could reassess expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. That could reduce some of the dollar’s recent momentum and allow major currencies to recover.

Scenario 3: Global Inflation Remains Elevated

If European or Australian inflation data surprise on the upside while domestic economic activity remains resilient, traders could increase expectations for tighter policy outside the United States. This could create greater two-way volatility rather than a simple dollar-driven market.

Scenario 4: Risk Sentiment Deteriorates

Renewed geopolitical or energy-market stress could increase demand for defensive currencies while simultaneously lifting inflation expectations. The combination can make traditional relationships between currencies, bonds and commodities less predictable.

What Forex Traders Should Watch Beyond the Headline Numbers

The largest market moves do not always come from the biggest headline number. Forex markets typically react to the difference between the actual result and what investors had already priced into exchange rates and interest-rate markets.

• Actual versus consensus: A result close to expectations may produce a smaller reaction than an unexpected surprise.
• Revisions: Previous U.S. employment figures can materially change the interpretation of the latest payroll number.
• Wages: Average hourly earnings remain important because persistent wage growth can influence inflation expectations.
• Central-bank language: The RBA, BoJ and Federal Reserve communication can matter as much as the headline rate decision.
• Bond yields: Changes in government-bond yields can quickly transmit into currency markets.
• Oil: Energy prices remain an important variable for inflation-sensitive currencies including CAD and for central-bank expectations globally.
• China: Chinese PMI data can influence AUD and NZD through regional growth and commodity-demand expectations.

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. dollar enters the week after a broad rally supported by higher Treasury yields and increased expectations for a firm Federal Reserve policy path.
• AUD/USD faces a major double catalyst from the RBA decision on Tuesday and Australian CPI on Wednesday.
• EUR/USD will be particularly sensitive to euro-area inflation and changing expectations for ECB policy.
• USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to the U.S.-Japan yield differential, Japanese inflation and intervention-related developments.
• GBP/USD has UK GDP and manufacturing data to contend with alongside broad U.S. dollar movements.
• USD/CAD remains exposed to oil-price movements as well as Canadian and U.S. economic data.
• USD/CHF may respond to both U.S. yields and changes in global risk sentiment.
• NZD/USD will have fewer major domestic catalysts but remains sensitive to Chinese data and global risk appetite.
• The week’s biggest scheduled U.S. event is Friday’s September employment report.
• With several inflation, employment and central-bank catalysts arriving within a few sessions, volatility could increase around major releases.

SkyPress Market Outlook

The final week of September could provide an important test of the dollar’s recent recovery. The market enters the week with a stronger U.S. dollar, but that strength will face several data-driven challenges.

The RBA and Australian inflation figures will set the tone for AUD-related pairs early in the week. European inflation becomes increasingly important toward Friday, while the U.S. PCE data and manufacturing indicators will provide additional information about inflation and economic momentum.

Then comes the U.S. employment report.

The combination means that the week ahead is likely to be driven less by a single currency story and more by changing expectations around interest rates, inflation, economic growth and risk sentiment.

For market participants following the major pairs, the most important task will be distinguishing between a genuine change in the macroeconomic outlook and short-term volatility caused by positioning around individual economic releases.

Sources & Market Data

Economic-calendar information was cross-checked using current weekly calendar data from ActionForex and Forex Factory. U.S. employment-release timing and previous employment figures were checked against the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Market context was cross-checked against Reuters/Dow Jones reporting, MUFG Research, State Street Investment Management and current FX-market analysis.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Reuters/Dow Jones market reporting; ActionForex Economic Calendar; Forex Factory Economic Calendar; MUFG Research; State Street Investment Management; Reserve Bank of Australia; FOREX.com.

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