Forex Forecast: November 16–20, 2026 – Major Currency Pairs and Gold Outlook

The foreign exchange market enters the week of November 16–20 with the US dollar holding a significant advantage over most major currencies. Stronger-than-expected US inflation, rising Treasury yields and changing Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations have reshaped the market outlook, putting the euro, pound, yen and commodity-linked currencies under pressure.

However, the dollar’s recent rally has also created conditions for increased volatility. The Japanese yen is approaching intervention-sensitive territory, while important inflation and employment releases from Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan could challenge the prevailing market direction.

Gold also enters the new week below the $4,000 psychological threshold after a sharp correction. Whether the metal stabilises or extends its decline will depend partly on the dollar, Treasury yields and demand for defensive assets.

This SkyPress forecast examines the likely scenarios for the major currency pairs and gold, alongside the economic developments that could influence market direction during the week.

• US dollar: The broader outlook remains positive while US yields and interest-rate expectations stay elevated.
• EUR/USD: The pair faces continued downside pressure, with 1.1000 an important psychological level.
• GBP/USD: Sterling’s direction will depend heavily on UK employment and inflation figures.
• USD/JPY: Further dollar strength remains possible, but Japanese intervention risk makes the pair particularly volatile around 160.
• USD/CHF: The dollar recovery is approaching an important technical resistance area.
• AUD/USD and NZD/USD: Both currencies remain vulnerable to broad dollar strength and changing commodity-market sentiment.
• Gold: The near-term outlook remains cautious below $4,000, although longer-term demand factors could provide support.

The US dollar enters the new week following one of its strongest weekly performances in recent months. The Dollar Index moved above 103, reaching levels not seen since April 2025, while the sharp increase in US Treasury yields strengthened the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.

Market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have also increased. Reuters reported that traders were pricing in approximately a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December. MUFG’s November 13 currency research similarly identified further dollar appreciation as a possibility, highlighting the influence of higher US yields on global currency markets.

The main question for the coming week is whether economic releases and Federal Reserve communications will reinforce these expectations or encourage investors to reconsider the pace of monetary tightening.

Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes will be particularly important. A more hawkish account of policymakers’ discussions could support the dollar, while indications of disagreement over further tightening could encourage some profit-taking.

SkyPress outlook: The dollar retains a bullish underlying bias. Nevertheless, after its rapid advance, temporary corrections should not be ruled out, particularly if economic data disappoints or policymakers adopt a less aggressive tone.

EUR/USD: Downside Pressure Remains

EUR/USD enters the week with a bearish technical and fundamental backdrop. The euro has weakened significantly against the dollar as US interest-rate expectations have moved higher and Treasury yields have increased.

FOREX.com market analysis identifies 1.1000 as an important downside reference, with 1.0943 representing another level to watch if selling pressure continues. The 1.1113 region is an important potential resistance area should the pair attempt a recovery.

The coming week will bring eurozone industrial production and final inflation data. These releases could influence expectations surrounding the European Central Bank, particularly if they reveal weaker economic activity or a change in the inflation outlook.

Forecast bias: Bearish. A sustained move below 1.1000 could expose the lower 1.0943 region. However, stronger eurozone data or a softer Federal Reserve message could trigger a corrective rebound. A recovery above 1.1113 would weaken the immediate bearish structure.

GBP/USD: UK Inflation Could Determine Sterling’s Direction

Sterling faces a challenging environment as the US dollar maintains its strength. GBP/USD has been pressured by the widening difference in interest-rate expectations between the United States and the United Kingdom.

The focus now shifts to UK employment figures on Tuesday and October inflation data on Wednesday. Employment conditions, wage growth and consumer inflation will help investors assess the Bank of England’s policy outlook.

Stronger inflation could increase expectations that UK interest rates will remain restrictive, potentially offering sterling some support. Conversely, weaker employment and easing inflation could increase pressure on the pound.

Forecast bias: Bearish to neutral. The broader dollar advantage favours downside risks, but the UK data releases could produce sharp short-term movements. A meaningful recovery would require stronger domestic figures and some moderation in US dollar momentum.

USD/JPY: Intervention Risk Complicates the Bullish Outlook

USD/JPY is one of the most closely watched currency pairs entering the new week. The pair briefly moved above the 160 level following the sharp repricing of US interest-rate expectations.

Higher US Treasury yields have been a major driver of the advance. MUFG and FOREX.com both identify the increasing importance of Japanese intervention risk as the pair approaches levels that have previously attracted warnings from Japanese authorities.

Japan’s October inflation report, scheduled for Thursday, could also influence expectations for the Bank of Japan. Stronger inflation may reinforce the argument for further policy normalisation, although the reaction will depend on the wider economic picture.

The important distinction is that the dollar’s fundamental advantage does not eliminate the possibility of sudden yen appreciation. Official intervention or stronger warnings could trigger sharp reversals even if the broader trend remains positive.

Forecast bias: Bullish with very high intervention risk. Further gains remain possible if US yields continue rising. However, traders should be cautious about assuming that a break above 160 guarantees a sustained advance. A sudden reversal remains a significant possibility.

USD/CHF: Dollar Recovery Approaches Resistance

USD/CHF has recovered strongly after its earlier decline, with the US dollar regaining ground against the Swiss franc. StoneX technical analysis identifies a major resistance area around 0.8407–0.8416, which could determine whether the current recovery develops into a more substantial bullish reversal.

The immediate support reference is around 0.8302, while the broader support area near 0.8200–0.8209 remains important. A sustained move above the resistance region would strengthen the bullish case, while rejection could encourage renewed selling.

Forecast bias: Cautiously bullish. The dollar recovery remains constructive, but the resistance area needs to be overcome before a stronger upward continuation can be considered established.

USD/CAD: Canadian Inflation Takes Centre Stage

USD/CAD will be influenced by Canada’s October Consumer Price Index, scheduled for Monday. The release could provide important information about the Bank of Canada’s policy outlook following its previous interest-rate decision.

Canadian inflation has become particularly important because policymakers must assess whether recent energy-price movements are creating broader inflationary pressure. Stronger-than-expected inflation could support the Canadian dollar if investors anticipate a more restrictive policy stance.

However, a softer inflation reading could weaken the Canadian currency, particularly if US yields remain elevated. Oil-market movements will also remain relevant because of Canada’s position as a major energy exporter.

Forecast bias: Neutral to bullish for USD/CAD. The broader dollar environment favours the upside, but Canada’s inflation report could challenge that direction. The market’s reaction to the data will be more important than the headline figure alone.

AUD/USD: Australian Employment and China Data in Focus

The Australian dollar has been among the weaker major currencies during the recent dollar advance. MUFG’s November 13 research highlighted the currency’s poor monthly performance, identifying concerns about the potential end of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tightening cycle, lower energy prices and weaker sentiment surrounding artificial-intelligence-related assets.

Investors will monitor Australian employment figures on Thursday and the Reserve Bank’s recent meeting minutes. China’s industrial production and retail sales figures will also matter because of Australia’s exposure to Chinese demand and regional economic activity.

Stronger Australian employment or resilient Chinese activity could offer the currency some support. However, disappointing figures combined with continued US dollar strength would increase downside risks.

Forecast bias: Bearish to neutral. The broader outlook remains cautious, although domestic employment data and developments in China could produce a temporary recovery.

NZD/USD: Dollar Strength Remains a Headwind

The New Zealand dollar also remains vulnerable to the broader strength of the US dollar. Market sentiment towards commodity-linked and Asia-Pacific currencies has weakened, while higher US yields have encouraged demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Developments in China will remain relevant to the New Zealand dollar because of the importance of Chinese demand to New Zealand’s export economy. Broader regional sentiment and expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also influence the pair.

Forecast bias: Bearish to neutral. Further weakness remains possible if the dollar continues to advance and regional economic sentiment deteriorates. A recovery in risk appetite or stronger Chinese data could provide temporary support.

Gold enters the week under considerable pressure after falling to a fresh 2026 low and finishing Friday below the $4,000 psychological level. Rising US yields, stronger dollar demand and changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy have reduced the attractiveness of the non-yielding precious metal.

StoneX’s November 13 gold outlook identifies a sustained recovery above $4,000 as an important early indication that selling pressure may be fading. The research also highlights continued central-bank purchases and historically stronger seasonal demand between November and January as factors that could support gold over a longer period.

From a technical perspective, the $3,850 region is an important nearby support reference. FXEmpire’s November 13 analysis highlighted this area while also identifying approximately $3,970 as a near-term resistance reference. A sustained move above $4,000 would improve the recovery outlook, although further resistance remains higher.

Forecast bias: Bearish below $4,000, with scope for stabilisation. A failure to recover the psychological level could leave gold vulnerable to renewed selling. However, a stronger-than-expected recovery in demand for safe-haven assets or a decline in US yields could support a rebound.

Investors should distinguish between a short-term technical recovery and a confirmed change in the broader trend. One positive trading session would not, by itself, establish that the recent decline has ended.

The coming week contains several releases capable of influencing currency-market expectations. The most important include Canadian inflation, US retail sales, UK employment and inflation, Federal Reserve minutes, Australian employment and Japanese inflation.

Note: This is a selected calendar of relevant releases, not an exhaustive list. Publication times should be checked against the relevant official calendar and local time zone before trading.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes could be particularly influential because investors are reassessing the possibility of further US monetary tightening. A hawkish interpretation could reinforce dollar strength, while a less aggressive account could encourage a correction.

UK inflation and employment data will be equally important for sterling. Canada’s CPI could influence USD/CAD early in the week, while Australian employment and Japanese inflation may determine whether the recent pressure on the Australian dollar and yen continues.

The balance of evidence currently favours the US dollar, supported by higher Treasury yields and expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy. This creates downside risks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, while keeping USD/CHF and USD/CAD supported by the broader dollar environment.

USD/JPY remains a special case. Although the interest-rate environment favours the dollar, the possibility of Japanese intervention makes the pair more vulnerable to sudden reversals than other major dollar pairs.

Gold faces a difficult near-term environment while it remains below $4,000. Nevertheless, continued central-bank demand and seasonal factors suggest that the longer-term outlook should not be judged solely by the latest decline.

The most important events to monitor are the US retail sales report, Federal Reserve minutes, UK inflation, Canadian CPI, Australian employment and Japanese inflation. Their impact will depend on how the actual results compare with market expectations and what they imply for future central-bank decisions.

SkyPress conclusion: The dollar begins the week with the advantage, but the market is entering a period where economic releases and official comments could quickly change short-term sentiment. Traders and investors should remain alert to confirmation, reversals and volatility rather than assume that the previous week’s trend will continue uninterrupted.

Will the US dollar continue strengthening next week?

The broader outlook remains positive because of elevated US yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. However, US economic releases and the Federal Reserve minutes could trigger corrections if they disappoint dollar bulls.

What is the outlook for EUR/USD for November 16–20?

The pair has a bearish near-term bias, with 1.1000 and 1.0943 identified as important downside reference levels. A recovery above 1.1113 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.

Could USD/JPY rise above 160?

Further gains are possible if US yields remain elevated. However, the possibility of Japanese intervention creates a significant risk of sudden yen appreciation and sharp price reversals.

Is gold likely to recover above $4,000?

A recovery is possible, but gold needs a sustained move above $4,000 to provide stronger evidence that selling pressure is fading. Higher US yields and a stronger dollar remain important obstacles.

Which economic reports should forex market participants watch?

The main releases include Canadian CPI, US retail sales, UK employment and inflation, Federal Reserve minutes, Australian employment and Japanese CPI.

This SkyPress forecast draws on publicly available economic calendars, market data and independent research. The analysis and editorial interpretation are original to SkyPress; the sources below are provided for transparency and further reading.

• Reuters – Dollar set for best week in two months as yen weakens toward 160
• MUFG Research – FX Weekly: USD Can Advance Further, November 13, 2026
• FOREX.com – US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD and USD/JPY
• FOREX.com – USD/JPY Weekly Outlook, November 14, 2026
• StoneX – Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Technical Outlook
• StoneX – Gold Outlook: Seasonal Tailwind Offers Hope Below $4,000
• FXEmpire – Gold’s $3,850 Weekly Support Matters
• Newsquawk – Week in Focus: November 16–20, 2026
• Scotiabank Economics – November 2026 Economic Release Calendar
• CMC Markets – The Week Ahead: Fed Minutes and Japan CPI

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